Every offseason I wait until the Cubs look like a quasi-finished project before writing up my thoughts on the new team. This year I waited longer than usual. Cubs Convention came and went. January turned into February. The ZiPS projections were released, so was PECOTA. And now, as pitchers and catchers report, the team still looks incomplete but it’s time to take a look at the Projections and the Chicago Cubs anyway.
As a reminder, projection systems all use different inputs to arrive at their conclusions for how the team will fare. They are also conservative by design, because the safest bet is to project the 50th percentile outcomes for the team.